Developmental Differentiations of Major Maize Stemborers Due to Global Warming in Temperate and Tropical Climates.

While many insects are in decline due to global warming, the effect of rising temperatures on crop insect pests is uncertain. A capacity to understand future changes in crop pest populations remains critical to ensure food security. Using temperature-dependent mathematical models of the development of four maize stemborers in temperate and tropical regions, we evaluated the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on development time. While recognizing the limitations of the temperature-dependent development rate approach, we found that global warming could either be beneficial or detrimental to pest development, depending on the optimal temperature for the development of the species and scenarios of climate change. Expected responses range from null development to 1.5 times faster development than expected today. These results suggest that in the medium term, the studied species could benefit from global warming with an accelerated development, while in the long term, their development could either be delayed or accelerated, which may impact their dynamics with implications on maize cultivation.

Modeling Temperature-Dependent Development Rate in Insects and Implications of Experimental Design.

Characterizing the temperature-dependent development rate requires empirical data acquired by rearing individuals at different temperatures. Many mathematical models can be fitted to empirical data, making model comparison a mandatory step, yet model selection practices widely vary. We present guidelines for model selection using statistical criteria and the assessment of biological relevance of fits, exemplified throughout a Lepidoptera pest dataset. We also used in silico experiments to explore how experimental design and species attributes impact estimation accuracy of biological traits. Our results suggested that the uncertainty in model predictions was mostly determined by the rearing effort and the variance in development times of individuals. We found that a higher number of tested temperatures instead of a higher sample size per temperature may lead to more accurate estimations of model parameters. Our simulations suggested that an inappropriate model choice can lead to biased estimated values of biological traits (defined as attributes of temperature dependent development rate, i.e., optimal temperature for development and critical thresholds), highlighting the need for standardized model selection methods. Therefore, our results have direct implications for future studies on the temperature-dependent development rate of insects.

The Effect of Diet Interacting With Temperature on the Development Rate of a Noctuidae Quinoa Pest.

The quinoa pest Copitarsia incommoda (Walker, Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is a cause of significant damage, and it is thus critical for Andean countries to have access to phenological models to maintain production and food safety. These models are key components in pest control strategies in the context of global warming and in the development of sustainable production integrating agroecological concepts. Phenological models are mainly based on outlining the relationship between temperature and development rate. In this study, we investigated the combined effect of protein content within the diet (artificial diet; artificial diet with -20% protein; artificial diet with +20% protein; natural quinoa diet) and temperature (12, 16.9, 19.5, 22.7, 24.6°C) as drivers of the development rate. Our study supports the literature, since temperature was found to be the main driver of the development rate. It highlights the significant role played by protein content and its interaction with temperature (significant effects of temperature, diet, and diet:temperature on development time using GLMs for all foraging life stages). We discuss the implications of such drivers of the development rate for implementing and applying phenological models that may benefit from including factors other than temperature. While performance curves such as development rate curves obtained from laboratory experiments are still a useful basis for phenological development, we also discuss the need to take into account the heterogeneity of the insect response to environmental factors. This is critical if pest control practices are to be deployed at the optimal time.

Measuring ontogenetic shifts in central-place foragers: A case study with honeybees.

Measuring time-activity budgets over the complete individual life span is now possible for many animals with the recent advances of life-long individual monitoring devices. Although analyses of changes in the patterns of time-activity budgets have revealed ontogenetic shifts in birds or mammals, no such technique has been applied to date on insects. We tested an automated breakpoint-based procedure to detect, assess and quantify shifts in the temporal pattern of the flight activities in honeybees. We assumed that the learning and foraging stages of honeybees will differ in several respects, to detect the age at onset of foraging (AOF). Using an extensive dataset covering the life-long monitoring of 1,167 individuals, we compared the AOF outputs with the more conventional approaches based on arbitrary thresholds. We further evaluated the robustness of the different methods comparing the foraging time-activity budget allocations between the presumed foragers and confirmed foragers. We revealed a clear-cut learning-foraging ontogenetic shift that differs in duration, frequency and time of occurrence of flights. Although AOF appeared to be highly plastic among bees, the breakpoint-based procedure seems better capable to detect it than arbitrary threshold-based methods that are unable to deal with inter-individual variation. We developed the aof r-package including a broad range of examples with both simulated and empirical datasets to illustrate the simplicity of use of the procedure. This simple procedure is generic enough to be derived from any individual life-long monitoring devices recording the time-activity budgets, and could propose new ecological applications of bio-logging to detect ontogenetic shifts in the behaviour of central-place foragers.

Competing Vegetation Structure Indices for Estimating Spatial Constrains in Carabid Abundance Patterns in Chinese Grasslands Reveal Complex Scale and Habitat Patterns.

Carabid communities are influenced by landscape features. Chinese steppes are subject to increasing desertification processes that are changing land-cover characteristics with negative impacts on insect communities. Despite those warnings, how land-cover characteristics influence carabid communities in steppe ecosystems remains unknown. The aim of this study is to investigate how landscape characteristics drive carabid abundance in different steppes (desert, typical, and meadow steppes) at different spatial scales. Carabid abundances were estimated using pitfall traps. Various landscape indices were derived from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) images. Indices expressing moisture and productivity were, in general, those with the highest correlations. Different indices capture landscape aspects that influence carabid abundance at different scales, in which the patchiness of desert vegetation plays a major role. Carabid abundance correlations with landscape characteristics rely on the type of grassland, on the vegetation index, and on the scale considered. Proper scales and indices are steppe type-specific, highlighting the need of considering various scales and indices to explain species abundances from remotely sensed data.

Influence of Temperature on the Interaction for Resource Utilization Between Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), and a Community of Lepidopteran Maize Stemborers Larvae.

Intra- and interspecific interactions within communities of species that utilize the same resources are characterized by competition or facilitation. The noctuid stemborers, Busseola fusca and Sesamia calamistis, and the crambid stemborer, Chilo partellus were the most important pests of maize in sub-Saharan Africa before the recent "invasion" of fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda, which currently seriously limits maize yields in Africa. This new pest is interacting with the stemborer community at the larval stage in the use of maize resources. From a work done by Ntiri et al. [13] on the influence of temperature on the larval intra- and interspecific resources utilization within the community of Lepidoptera stemborers involving B. fusca, S. calamistis, and C. partellus, there is a need to update this study by adding the new pest, S. frugiperda, in order to understand the effect of temperature on the larval interactions of all these four species under the context of climate change. The influence of temperature on intra- and interspecific larval interactions was studied in the same protocol of Ntiri et al. [13] using artificial stems kept at different constant temperatures (15 °C, 20 °C, 25 °C, and 30 °C) in an incubator and assessing survival and relative growth rates of each species in single and multi-species experiments. After the inclusion of FAW into the experiments, with regard to relative growth rates, both intra- and interspecific competition was observed among all four species. With regard to survival rates, cannibalism can also explain the intra- and interspecific interactions observed among all four species. Interspecific competition was stronger between the stemborers than between the FAW and the stemborers. Similar to lepidopteran stemborers, temperature affected both survival and relative growth rates of the FAW as well. Regardless of the temperature, C. partellus was superior in interspecific interactions shown by higher relative growth and survival rates. The results suggest that the FAW will co-exist with stemborer species along entire temperature gradient, though competition and/or cannibalism with them is weak. In addition, temperature increases caused by climate change is likely to confer an advantage to C. partellus over the fall armyworm and the other noctuids.

Low-cost automatic temperature monitoring system with alerts for laboratory rearing units.

Monitoring accurately temperature is a key issue in biological studies involving living experimental material. It is especially true for insects which body temperature is mostly controlled by environmental temperature, with profound consequences of a few degrees variation on most physiological processes such as survival, development, fecundity, and mobility. If programmable rearing units can be purchased, it remains important to monitor and store temperature information acquired inside the rearing unit to ensure that observed phenomena are not the result of unintended and not scarily noticeable changes in temperature, and to account for the effect of temperature variation in statistical analysis. As most laboratories involved in insect rearing dispose of a large number of rearing units, the technical solution should meet the monitoring needs while being affordable and adaptable to various experimental designs. For that purpose, we designed a low cost (below 100€) and open source automatic temperature monitoring system for rearing units in laboratory. Key features providing advantage over pre-existing methods include: •Highly configurable temperature monitoring and life-time storage capacity•Email alerts based on configurable user-defined threshold•Automatic configurable reports in the form of dashboards.

Carry-Over Niches for Lepidopteran Maize Stemborers and Associated Parasitoids during Non-Cropping Season.

Sources of infestation are the key elements to be considered in the development of habitat management techniques for the control of maize stemborers. Several wild plants, grasses mostly, have been identified that serve as hosts for stemborers and their parasitoids during the off-season when maize is not present in the field. However, their abundance is much lower in wild plants compared to cultivated fields. Thus, the role of wild plants as a reservoir for cereal stemborers and their parasitoids is still controversial, particularly in agro-ecosystems with reduced wild habitat. We studied the occurrence of different maize stemborers and associated parasitoids in maize stem residues and wild grasses during non-cropping seasons as potential carry-over populations to subsequent early season maize plants. Surveys were conducted in the central region of Kenya during long and short dry seasons in maize residues and wild grasses as well as during the two rainy seasons in maize plants at earlier and late whorl stages during the years of 2017 and 2018. Wild habitat had a higher species diversity than maize residues habitat, but maize residues had a higher abundance of maize stemborer species, such as Busseola fusca, Sesamia calamistis, and Chilo partellus, and of associated parasitoid species (i.e., Cotesia flavipes and Cotesia sesamiae) than wild plants. Our surveys, complemented by field parasitoid releases of C. flavipes and C. sesamiae, indicated that maize residues constitute a better refugia reservoir not only of the maize stemborers but also of C. flavipes and C. sesamiae during non-cropping seasons as compared to wild plants and, thus, might constitute in this region the main source of both stemborers and C. flavipes/C. sesamiae carry-over in maize plants during the subsequent cropping season. Thus, systematic destruction of maize residues would not help the biological control of lepidopteran stemborers. This is particularly true in areas with reduced wild habitat.

Carabid community structure in northern China grassland ecosystems: Effects of local habitat on species richness, species composition and functional diversity.

BACKGROUND: Most carabid beetles are particularly sensitive to local habitat characteristics. Although in China grasslands account for more than 40% of the national land, their biodiversity is still poorly known. The aim of this paper is to identify the main environmental characteristics influencing carabid diversity in different types of grassland in northern China. METHODS: We investigated the influence of vegetation (plant biomass, cover, density, height and species richness), soil (bulk density, above ground litter, moisture and temperature) and climate (humidity, precipitation and temperature) on carabid community structure (species richness, species composition and functional diversity-measured as body size, movement and total diversity) in three types of grasslands: desert, typical and meadow steppes. We used Canonical correspondence analysis to investigate the role of habitat characteristics on species composition and eigenvector spatial filtering to investigate the responses of species richness and functional diversities. RESULTS: We found that carabid community structure was strongly influenced by local habitat characteristics and particularly by climatic factors. Carabids in the desert steppe showed the lowest richness and functional diversities. Climate predictors (temperature, precipitation and humidity) had positive effects on carabid species richness at both regional and ecosystem levels, with difference among ecosystems. Plant diversity had a positive influence on carabid richness at the regional level. Soil compaction and temperature were negatively related to species richness at regional level. Climatic factors positively influenced functional diversities, whereas soil temperature had negative effects. Soil moisture and temperature were the most important drivers of species composition at regional level, whereas the relative importance of the various environmental parameters varied among ecosystems. DISCUSSION: Carabid responses to environmental characteristics varied among grassland types, which warns against generalizations and indicates that management programs should be considered at grassland scale. Carabid community structure is strongly influenced by climatic factors, and can therefore be particularly sensitive to ongoing climate change.

Thermal pace-of-life strategies improve phenological predictions in ectotherms.

Phenological variability among populations is widespread in nature. A few predictive phenological models integrate intrapopulational variability, but none has ever explored the individual strategies potentially occurring within a population. The "pace-of-life" syndrome accounts for such individual strategies, but has yet to be explored under a phenological context. Here we integrated, for the first time, the slow-fast thermal strategies stemming from the "pace-of-life" into a mechanistic predictive framework. We obtained 4619 phenological observations of an important crop pest in the Bolivian Andes by individually following 840 individuals under five rearing temperatures and across nine life stages. The model calibrated with the observed individual "pace-of-life" strategies showed a higher accuracy in phenological predictions than when accounting for intrapopulational variability alone. We further explored our framework with generated data and suggest that ectotherm species with a high number of life stages and with slow and/or fast individuals should exhibit a greater variance of populational phenology, resulting in a potentially longer time window of interaction with other species. We believe that the "pace-of-life" framework is a promising approach to improve phenological prediction across a wide array of species.

Market access and community size influence pastoral management of native and exotic livestock species: A case study in communities of the Cordillera Real in Bolivia's high Andean wetlands.

Grazing areas management is of utmost importance in the Andean region. In the valleys of the Bolivian Cordillera Real near La Paz, pastoralism constitutes the traditional way for people to insure food security and economical sustainability. In these harsh mountains, unique and productive wetlands sustained by glacial water streams are of utmost importance for feeding cattle herds during the dry season. After the colonization by the Spanish, a shift in livestock species has been observed, with the introduction of exotic species such as cows and sheep, resulting in a different impact on pastures compared to native camelid species-llamas and alpacas. Here we explored some of the social-economical and environmental drivers that motivate Bolivian pastoralists to prefer exotic over native livestock species, based on 36 household surveys in the Cordillera Real. We constructed a Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model in order to assess the relationships between these drivers. Our results suggest that the access to market influenced pastoralists to reshape their herd composition, by increasing the number of sheep. They also suggest that community size increased daily grazing time in pastures, therefore intensifying the grazing pressure. At a broader scale, this study highlights the effects of some social-economical and environmental drivers on mountain herding systems.

Microclimate Data Improve Predictions of Insect Abundance Models Based on Calibrated Spatiotemporal Temperatures.

A large body of literature has recently recognized the role of microclimates in controlling the physiology and ecology of species, yet the relevance of fine-scale climatic data for modeling species performance and distribution remains a matter of debate. Using a 6-year monitoring of three potato moth species, major crop pests in the tropical Andes, we asked whether the spatiotemporal resolution of temperature data affect the predictions of models of moth performance and distribution. For this, we used three different climatic data sets: (i) the WorldClim dataset (global dataset), (ii) air temperature recorded using data loggers (weather station dataset), and (iii) air crop canopy temperature (microclimate dataset). We developed a statistical procedure to calibrate all datasets to monthly and yearly variation in temperatures, while keeping both spatial and temporal variances (air monthly temperature at 1 km² for the WorldClim dataset, air hourly temperature for the weather station, and air minute temperature over 250 m radius disks for the microclimate dataset). Then, we computed pest performances based on these three datasets. Results for temperature ranging from 9 to 11°C revealed discrepancies in the simulation outputs in both survival and development rates depending on the spatiotemporal resolution of the temperature dataset. Temperature and simulated pest performances were then combined into multiple linear regression models to compare predicted vs. field data. We used an additional set of study sites to test the ability of the results of our model to be extrapolated over larger scales. Results showed that the model implemented with microclimatic data best predicted observed pest abundances for our study sites, but was less accurate than the global dataset model when performed at larger scales. Our simulations therefore stress the importance to consider different temperature datasets depending on the issue to be solved in order to accurately predict species abundances. In conclusion, keeping in mind that the mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected and modeled remains a key issue, temperature dataset selection should be balanced by the desired output spatiotemporal scale for better predicting pest dynamics and developing efficient pest management strategies.

Direct and indirect effects of glaciers on aquatic biodiversity in high Andean peatlands.

The rapid melting of glacier cover is one of the most obvious impacts of climate change on alpine ecosystems and biodiversity. Our understanding of the impact of a decrease in glacier runoff on aquatic biodiversity is currently based on the 'glacier-heterogeneity-diversity' paradigm, according to which there is high α-diversity at intermediate levels of glacial influence due to the high degree of environmental heterogeneity caused by glacier water. This α-diversity pattern generates high levels of between-site aquatic community variation (high ß diversity) and increases regional diversity (γ-diversity). There is a rich conceptual background in favor of this paradigm, but empirical data supporting it are scarce. We investigated this paradigm by analyzing the different diversity patterns (α, ß and γ-diversity) of four aquatic groups (zooplankton, macroinvertebrates, algae and macrophytes) living in high-elevation peatlands (>4500 m above sea level). We sampled 200 pools from 20 peatlands along a glacier gradient in the Cordillera Real of Bolivia. We performed structural equation modeling (SEM) to analyze the potential mechanisms underlying the observed diversity patterns. Intermediate levels of glacial influence (15-20% cover) resulted in high heterogeneity, but α-diversity responded to glacial influence only for the zooplankton group (Cladocera). Our SEM analysis did not identify environmental heterogeneity as a significant variable explaining the relationship between glacier and α-diversity. Peatland area had a strong positive effect on heterogeneity and diversity. ß-diversity was significantly associated with glacier gradient, and 12.9% of the total regional diversity (γ-diversity) was restricted to peatlands with a high degree of glacial influence. These species might be lost in a context of glacial retreat. These findings provide new insight into the potential effects of glacial retreat on the aquatic environment and biodiversity in the peatlands of the tropical Andes.

Genetic variation in aggregation behaviour and interacting phenotypes in Drosophila.

Aggregation behaviour is the tendency for animals to group together, which may have important consequences on individual fitness. We used a combination of experimental and simulation approaches to study how genetic variation and social environment interact to influence aggregation dynamics in Drosophila To do this, we used two different natural lines of Drosophila that arise from a polymorphism in the foraging gene (rovers and sitters). We placed groups of flies in a heated arena. Flies could freely move towards one of two small, cooler refuge areas. In groups of the same strain, sitters had a greater tendency to aggregate. The observed behavioural variation was based on only two parameters: the probability of entering a refuge and the likelihood of choosing a refuge based on the number of individuals present. We then directly addressed how different strains interact by mixing rovers and sitters within a group. Aggregation behaviour of each line was strongly affected by the presence of the other strain, without changing the decision rules used by each. Individuals obeying local rules shaped complex group dynamics via a constant feedback loop between the individual and the group. This study could help to identify the circumstances under which particular group compositions may improve individual fitness through underlying aggregation mechanisms under specific environmental conditions.

Changes in the distribution of multispecies pest assemblages affect levels of crop damage in warming tropical Andes.

Climate induced species range shifts might create novel interactions among species that may outweigh direct climatic effects. In an agricultural context, climate change might alter the intensity of competition or facilitation interactions among pests with, potentially, negative consequences on the levels of damage to crop. This could threaten the productivity of agricultural systems and have negative impacts on food security, but has yet been poorly considered in studies. In this contribution, we constructed and evaluated process-based species distribution models for three invasive potato pests in the Tropical Andean Region. These three species have been found to co-occur and interact within the same potato tuber, causing different levels of damage to crop. Our models allowed us to predict the current and future distribution of the species and therefore, to assess how damage to crop might change in the future due to novel interactions. In general, our study revealed the main challenges related to distribution modeling of invasive pests in highly heterogeneous regions. It yielded different results for the three species, both in terms of accuracy and distribution, with one species surviving best at lower altitudes and the other two performing better at higher altitudes. As to future distributions our results suggested that the three species will show different responses to climate change, with one of them expanding to higher altitudes, another contracting its range and the other shifting its distribution to higher altitudes. These changes will result in novel areas of co-occurrence and hence, interactions of the pests, which will cause different levels of damage to crop. Combining population dynamics and species distribution models that incorporate interspecific trade-off relationships in different environments revealed a powerful approach to provide predictions about the response of an assemblage of interacting species to future environmental changes and their impact on process rates.

Simulating population genetics of pathogen vectors in changing landscapes: guidelines and application with Triatoma brasiliensis.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the mechanisms that influence the population dynamics and spatial genetic structure of the vectors of pathogens infecting humans is a central issue in tropical epidemiology. In view of the rapid changes in the features of landscape pathogen vectors live in, this issue requires new methods that consider both natural and human systems and their interactions. In this context, individual-based model (IBM) simulations represent powerful yet poorly developed approaches to explore the response of pathogen vectors in heterogeneous social-ecological systems, especially when field experiments cannot be performed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We first present guidelines for the use of a spatially explicit IBM, to simulate population genetics of pathogen vectors in changing landscapes. We then applied our model with Triatoma brasiliensis, originally restricted to sylvatic habitats and now found in peridomestic and domestic habitats, posing as the most important Trypanosoma cruzi vector in Northeastern Brazil. We focused on the effects of vector migration rate, maximum dispersal distance and attraction by domestic habitat on T. brasiliensis population dynamics and spatial genetic structure. Optimized for T. brasiliensis using field data pairwise fixation index (FST) from microsatellite loci, our simulations confirmed the importance of these three variables to understand vector genetic structure at the landscape level. We then ran prospective scenarios accounting for land-use change (deforestation and urbanization), which revealed that human-induced land-use change favored higher genetic diversity among sampling points. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our work shows that mechanistic models may be useful tools to link observed patterns with processes involved in the population genetics of tropical pathogen vectors in heterogeneous social-ecological landscapes. Our hope is that our study may provide a testable and applicable modeling framework to a broad community of epidemiologists for formulating scenarios of landscape change consequences on vector dynamics, with potential implications for their surveillance and control.

Obstacles to integrated pest management adoption in developing countries.

Despite its theoretical prominence and sound principles, integrated pest management (IPM) continues to suffer from anemic adoption rates in developing countries. To shed light on the reasons, we surveyed the opinions of a large and diverse pool of IPM professionals and practitioners from 96 countries by using structured concept mapping. The first phase of this method elicited 413 open-ended responses on perceived obstacles to IPM. Analysis of responses revealed 51 unique statements on obstacles, the most frequent of which was "insufficient training and technical support to farmers." Cluster analyses, based on participant opinions, grouped these unique statements into six themes: research weaknesses, outreach weaknesses, IPM weaknesses, farmer weaknesses, pesticide industry interference, and weak adoption incentives. Subsequently, 163 participants rated the obstacles expressed in the 51 unique statements according to importance and remediation difficulty. Respondents from developing countries and high-income countries rated the obstacles differently. As a group, developing-country respondents rated "IPM requires collective action within a farming community" as their top obstacle to IPM adoption. Respondents from high-income countries prioritized instead the "shortage of well-qualified IPM experts and extensionists." Differential prioritization was also evident among developing-country regions, and when obstacle statements were grouped into themes. Results highlighted the need to improve the participation of stakeholders from developing countries in the IPM adoption debate, and also to situate the debate within specific regional contexts.

Development of a viral biopesticide for the control of the Guatemala potato tuber moth Tecia solanivora.

The Guatemala potato tuber moth Tecia solanivora (Povolny) (Lep. Gelechiidae) is an invasive species from Mesoamerica that has considerably extended its distribution area in recent decades. While this species is considered to be a major potato pest in Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador, currently no specific control methods are available for farmers. To address this issue we developed a biopesticide formulation to be used in integrated pest management of T. solanivora, following three steps. First, search for entomopathogenic viruses were carried out through extensive bioprospections in 12 countries worldwide. As a result, new Phthorimaea operculella granulovirus (PhopGV) isolates were found in T. solanivora and five other gelechid species. Second, twenty PhopGV isolates, including both previously known and newly found isolates, were genetically and/or biologically characterized in order to choose the best candidate for a biopesticide formulation. Sequence data were obtained for the ecdysteroid UDP-glucosyltransferase (egt) gene, a single copy gene known to play a role in pathogenicity. Three different sizes (1086, 1305 and 1353 bp) of egt were found among the virus isolates analyzed. Unexpectedly, no obvious correlation between egt size and pathogenicity was found. Bioassays on T. solanivora neonates showed a maximum of a 14-fold difference in pathogenicity among the eight PhopGV isolates tested. The most pathogenic PhopGV isolate, JLZ9f, had a medium lethal concentration (LC(50)) of 10 viral occlusion bodies per square mm of consumed tuber skin. Third, we tested biopesticide dust formulations by mixing a dry carrier (calcium carbonate) with different adjuvants (magnesium chloride or an optical brightener or soya lecithin) and different specific amounts of JLZ9f. During laboratory experiments, satisfactory control of the pest (>98% larva mortality compared to untreated control) was achieved with a formulation containing 10 macerated JLZ9f-dead T. solanivora larvae per kg of calcium carbonate mixed with 50 mL/kg of soya lecithin. The final product provides an interesting alternative to chemical pesticides for Andean farmers affected by this potato pest.

Coupled information diffusion--pest dynamics models predict delayed benefits of farmer cooperation in pest management programs.

Worldwide, the theory and practice of agricultural extension system have been dominated for almost half a century by Rogers' "diffusion of innovation theory". In particular, the success of integrated pest management (IPM) extension programs depends on the effectiveness of IPM information diffusion from trained farmers to other farmers, an important assumption which underpins funding from development organizations. Here we developed an innovative approach through an agent-based model (ABM) combining social (diffusion theory) and biological (pest population dynamics) models to study the role of cooperation among small-scale farmers to share IPM information for controlling an invasive pest. The model was implemented with field data, including learning processes and control efficiency, from large scale surveys in the Ecuadorian Andes. Our results predict that although cooperation had short-term costs for individual farmers, it paid in the long run as it decreased pest infestation at the community scale. However, the slow learning process placed restrictions on the knowledge that could be generated within farmer communities over time, giving rise to natural lags in IPM diffusion and applications. We further showed that if individuals learn from others about the benefits of early prevention of new pests, then educational effort may have a sustainable long-run impact. Consistent with models of information diffusion theory, our results demonstrate how an integrated approach combining ecological and social systems would help better predict the success of IPM programs. This approach has potential beyond pest management as it could be applied to any resource management program seeking to spread innovations across populations.